LightFair International kicks off today so expect a slew of announcements around advances in solid-state lighting and lighting automation technologies, particularly an LED replacement for the coveted 100-watt incandescent light bulb. This morning, San Jose-based Switch Lighting has announced a soon-to-be-available (late 2012) LED light bulb that is, in fact, equivalent in light output to a 100-watt incandescent bulb. Now, it will likely cost you about $50 — for now — but that price will come down. In two years, expect your local Home Depot to be heavily stocked with these babies, or some other version. Already, your local HD is likely carrying Philips’ 60-watt equivalent LED — the one with the yellow, space-age casing. I’ve been testing one out in my house and I have to tell you, I love the light. It’s warm, bright, and like all LEDs can be dimmed with no problems.

These bulbs are also getting smarter. Check out Katie Fehrenbacher’s story on Earth2Tech for an idea of what will be on display at the show, such as “networked light bulbs” and remotely controlled Wi-Fi-enabled bulbs.

Now, I do have some concerns — well, not concerns, but let’s call them queries — regarding these bulbs. First, they’re really heavy, so I wonder from a lifecycle perspective how much the added weight affects the carbon footprint of transporting these devices and how that balances off against the gains in light efficiency and bulb longevity. Also, I wonder about the economics of making and supplying these devices, and how that will prevent the bulbs from becoming as affordable as existing incandescents. One of the things that really killed telecommunications suppliers such as Nortel back in the early 2000s was that their product was getting so good they were running harder just to keep up. A new product would effectively replace 10 previous products, so unless you could charge 10 times more for that product you were losing revenues unless you gained more market share. Makers of incandescent bulbs counted on volume to squeeze out a small profit. They counted on bulbs dying out quickly and being replaced to keep the demand continually strong. LEDs, because of their long life (and I mean true long life, compared to those frauds called CFLs that don’t last nearly as long as manufacturer’s claim) really disrupt the business model. So it will be interesting to see how this all turns out.

Swedish furniture goliath IKEA has become the first major retailer in Canada to commit to an all-out phaseout of incandescent light bulbs in 2011, a year ahead of a federal ban on the sale of low-efficiency light bulbs. In fact, IKEA said it will stop selling the bulbs by Jan. 1, 2011, about half a year from now. The retailer will focus sales on compact fluorescent, halogen and increasingly LED lighting options. “Clearly, Thomas Edison’s incandescent light bulb discovery was a landmark 19th century invention,” the company’s press release states. ”But times have changed. New discoveries prevail.”

Amen.

Got an interesting package in the mail yesterday from lighting giant Sylvania, which is introducing a new line of LED-lit products. One is a bottle stopper — you know, those plastic corks you use to store an opened a bottle of wine? But this isn’t just any bottle stopper. Moulded within are two watch batteries that power an LED light that changes colors. The idea is that when you have guests over, you can impress them by lighting up the bottle of wine at the centre of the table. They also have drink coasters and place mats that do the same, creating a light show on the dining room table.

This wouldn’t be possible without LED efficiency. But it also shouldn’t be possible. It’s pointless. It merely encourages more waste. The batteries in most cases can’t be replaced. The batteries run out after 60 hours of use, after which most people will be inclined to chuck the item in the garbage.

This is a prime example of new energy-efficient technology enabling more consumption, more waste. “While seemingly perverse, improvements in energy efficiency result in more of the good being consumed – not less,” said Jeff Rubin in 2007 when he was chief economist at CIBC World Markets. He cited the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate, which argues that “as improvements in energy efficiency lower the cost effective cost of energy relative to what otherwise would have prevailed, the resulting substitution and income effects that flow from any price change result in more of the good being consumed.”

The battery-powered LED bottle stopper and coasters may be small examples of the Khazzoom-Brookes postulate in action, but they all add up. It warns us that technology alone won’t save the day, and in some cases can set us back.