Are the wheels falling off the nuclear renaissance?

There’s a lot of rethinking going on in the utility sector these days. Utilities once intent on building new nuclear plants are now scrapping those plans and focusing instead of refurbishing existing  reactors. Last week Canadian nuclear operator Bruce Power announced it was withdrawing two new-build site licensing applications from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission. The company said it would concentrate resources instead on refurbishing several reactors at its site northwest of Toronto. Then Russia’s state nuclear company said it would cut back its new-build program by half. Exelon, the biggest nuclear owner and operator in the United States, has said it would halt all new-build efforts for at least three years (and possibly as much as 20) and instead move toward uprating the capacity of its existing 17 reactor units.

The common theme is simple: the economic downturn has reduced electricity demand and with it the need for new reactors. (more…)

The Tennessee Valley Authority is the latest utility group to disclose revised estimates on the cost of building a new nuclear plant. The TVA says it now expects the cost of building a twin-reactor plant based on Westinghouse AP-1000 reactors could reach as high as $17.5 billion (U.S.). A few days earlier, Eskom, which is South Africa’s state utility, said it was dropping plans to build a single-reactor nuclear plant because of the “magnitude of investment” — an estimated $10 billion (U.S.). (more…)

I acknowledge that nuclear power has to play a role in our battle against climate change, with the caveat that we exhaust all other reasonable, low-emission alternatives and maximize efficiency and conservation. The industry will have its hands full just trying to replace the megawatts lost as older plants are decommissioned or refurbished. This leaves open the question, in the current market environment, of how much *new* nuclear is likely to be built over the coming decade. My Clean Break column today looks at how the rising cost of building nuclear plants could affect its competitiveness with other alternatives, even excluding some of the environmental question marks like waste management uncertainty and plant safety. (more…)