2008 Clean Break Lookahead
Call them predictions, call it my own personal wishlist, but 2008 is poised to be a pivotal year for clean technologies. We’ve got a U.S. presidential election in November that could dramatically change the course of post-Kyoto climate talks and finally get America in the game. We’ve got a Summer Olympics in Beijing that will throw a spotlight on China and give the world’s largest consumer of coal a chance to highlight its green projects, ambitions and the technologies behind them. We also have Earth Hour happening on March 29, when dozens of cities around the world will turn their lights off for an hour to demonstrate their commitment to fighting climate change. I expect this year’s event to be a turning point in our history — a shift from our passive acknowledgement that we need to act to battle climate change to a more proactive, almost activist call for immediate action. Expect public protests against government inaction to hit the streets in a big way in 2008. Oh, and while I personally believe we hit peak oil in mid-2006, I expect 2008 will be the year when more people will begin to believe that conventional oil production is on a permanent downward slide — i.e. the trend will become more obvious.
Now, mixed into all of this, here in my view are eight “To Watch” items for 2008:
1) Offshore wind and ocean power: We’ve been hearing much about the potential for offshore wind power and ocean power systems. In 2008, we’ll begin to see some major offshore project announcements, each backed with substantial financing and key government commitments. On the ocean energy side, smaller scale pilot projects will be revealed as authorities make good on their promises to fast-track approvals. Rising interest in offshore wind and ocean power systems will spark much-need discussion of high-voltage DC transmission and suboceanic transmission using superconducting technologies, given the need to connect these remote energy sources to the grid.
2) Reaching beyond PV: The solar market will show no signs of slowing down, but all eyes will be on solar thermal power ventures, such as Ausra, which claim they can compete directly against coal-fired power generation using heat from the sun. This again highlights the need to start discussing next-generation transmission technologies and faster development of the smart grid. Solar thermal, both for distributed heat generation and central power generation, will continue to gain respect in the larger solar arena. We’ll also start to hear serious talk of combined heat, power and lighting solar systems, providing a 3-in-1 package and a compelling proposition for big-box retailers such as Wal-Mart and Home Depot that are eager to walk their marketing talk.
3) Selling energy, not equipment: Expect the SunEdison services model to expand, not just as a renewable utility option from new entrants but as an offering that includes solar, geothermal and even conservation. Up until now the focus has been on the Solar PV utility, but newcomers such as Mondial Energy are gaining traction on the solar thermal front while other newbies are experimenting with no-risk, no-capital approaches that sell energy, not systems, to end customers that are looking for price stability while also greening up their images. Another boost to this approach? The banking community is beginning to realize it’s a good place to invest.
4) No more faking it: Greenwashing got attention in 2007, but expect major backlashes in 2008 against companies that want to appear green but don’t back up appearances with substance. When Shell sold its solar unit and BP invested in the oil sands, it had more people asking themselves: Are we being had? This coming year will separate the real deals from the raw deals. Companies will tone down their advertising, claiming to be “greener” but not necessarily “green” as more consumers and media call them on it.
5) Made In China: We’ve talked perhaps too much about the opportunity for selling clean technologies in China, but haven’t spent nearly enough time worrying about the new generation of Chinese clean technology companies that want to sell to us. Whether it’s solar, wind, power electronics, or energy storage, expect an eye-opening year as Chinese companies begin coming to market with clean technologies that beat North American companies on price. It’s great news for consumers and businesses that will start to see a meaningful reduction on their green purchases, but for investors in some cleantech stocks it could prove a rude awakening. Some may find comfort by investing in development and service companies with a local focus — i.e. wind and solar developers who have a geographical edge over the Chinese. Pure tech plays need to beware the Chinese threat.
6) Peak labor: We can talk all we want about peak oil, peak uranium, peak lithium or peak energy, but a common denominator for all is a labor bottleneck. We’ve got talk of a renaissance in nuclear. Hype around clean coal and carbon capture and sequestration. A boom in Canada’s tar sands. The list goes on and on, more or less amounting to a massive demand on skilled labor at a time when the power sector will see mass retirements over the next five to 10 years. We have to ask whether we truly have enough engineers, scientists and tradespeople to fulfill the promises and expectations we have in next-generation energy solutions that are big and centralized. Each of these industries is competing with the other for a shrinking batch of highly skilled workers, and it’s doubtful the bottleneck will open up anytime soon, particularly as regulators impose more stringent rules around safety and the environment. So yes, a carbon tax may spur development of clean coal and next-gen nuclear, and yes, there are big reserves of unconventional oil that become more economical to retrieve as energy prices rise, but it gets you very little when you’re struggling to find the people to do the work. The issue of peak labor will become more apparent in 2008 and will make solar, wind and other distributed energy technologies look even more appealing. You don’t need to be a nuclear engineer to install a solar panel on your roof or in a solar park for that matter. Distributed generation allows us to bypass much of the skills bottleneck and quickly get the clean power we need.
7) Turning a positive into a negative: As concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reach critical levels, we’ll need to start talking more seriously about extracting CO2 from the air rather than simply adding less or none. This means considering technologies that are carbon-negative, and this is where gasification and pyrolysis of biomass becomes interesting. Using biomass as fuel is itself carbon-neutral, but if we could capture and sequester the CO2 through a gasification process or in the form of a solid char or “biochar” through pyrolysis, then there’s opportunity to generate electricity and heat and remove CO2 from the atmosphere. It’s not going to solve all our problems, but certainly 2008 is a year where we see growing interest in biomass gasification and biochar production, even if only on a small, distributed scale.
Charge it, please: Some think biofuels are the future of transportation, but if you’re like me you believe most consumer vehicles in the future will be plug-in hybrid or pure electric. I’m not saying biofuels won’t play a major role, particularly in developing countries, but when Vinod Khosla disses plug-ins as a sideshow I scratch my head. Electrification of transportation, and extending the smart grid to our personal and fleet vehicles, is going to happen in North America and Europe. Companies such as CrossChasm and V2Green are jumping at the opportunity, as is Shai Agassi’s well-funded Project Better Place. Biofuels will play a role, but a vehicle that relies strictly on combustible fuel is equivalent to a standalone PC in a networked world. Yes, batteries remain a key hurdle, but not an insurmountable one. Expect some major breakthrough in 2008, and important announcements related to affordable, low-cost electric vehicles that can be driven on highways.
Of course, this isn ‘t an exhaustive list — just a few thoughts bouncing around my head these days. Each day surprises, and this leaves me optimistic that the world is heading in the right direction. We just need to speed it up a bit. Perhaps we’ll see that in 2008.
Happy New Year.
Tyler Hamilton is editor-in-chief of Corporate Knights magazine and a business columnist for the Toronto Star, Canada's largest daily newspaper. In addition to this Clean Break blog, Tyler writes a weekly column of the same name that discusses trends, happenings and innovators in the clean technology and green energy market. This blog is a personal project started in April 2005. It is not an official blog of the newspaper.
January 1st, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Thanks for the great list. I find #4 particularly intriguing – “No More Faking it.”
We need a 3rd party certification system (like LEED for building) that will confirm for environmentally conscious consumers that they are supporting a company that is doing all that they can to reduce their environemtnal harm. For a company to say that they are doing something is meaningless unless it can be verified externally. Thanks to decades of being lied to, we can no longer take companies at their word.
Best wishes to everyone for 2008.
Jason
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Run-of-River power generation is worth looking at as well, but as with all else – its rather speculative when it comes to investing.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Here’s the current news and links on Terra Preta (TP)soils and closed-loop pyrolysis of Biomass, this integrated virtuous cycle could sequester 100s of Billions of tons of carbon to the soils.
Terra Preta Soils Technology To Master the Carbon Cycle
This technology represents the most comprehensive, low cost, and productive approach to long term stewardship and sustainability.Terra Preta Soils a process for Carbon Negative Bio fuels, massive Carbon sequestration, 1/3 Lower CH4 & N2O soil emissions, and 3X Fertility Too.
Thanks,
Erich
UN Climate Change Conference: Biochar present at the Bali Conference
http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/steinerbalinov2107
SCIAM Article May 15 07;
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=5670236C-E7F2-99DF-3E2163B9FB144E40
After many years of reviewing solutions to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) I believe this technology can manage Carbon for the greatest collective benefit at the lowest economic price, on vast scales. It just needs to be seen by ethical globally minded companies.
Could you please consider looking for a champion for this orphaned Terra Preta Carbon Soil Technology.
The main hurtle now is to change the current perspective held by the IPCC that the soil carbon cycle is a wash, to one in which soil can be used as a massive and ubiquitous Carbon sink via Charcoal. Below are the first concrete steps in that direction;
S.1884 – The Salazar Harvesting Energy Act of 2007
A Summary of Biochar Provisions in S.1884:
Carbon-Negative Biomass Energy and Soil Quality Initiative
for the 2007 Farm Bill
http://www.biochar-international.org/newinformationevents/newlegislation.html
Tackling Climate Change in the U.S.
Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from Biomass by 2030by Ralph P. Overend, Ph.D. and Anelia Milbrandt
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
http://www.ases.org/climatechange/toc/07_biomass.pdf
The organization 25×25 (see 25x’25 – Home) released it’s (first-ever, 55-page )”Action Plan” ; see; http://www.25×25.org/storage/25×25/documents/IP%20Documents/ActionPlanFinalWEB_04-19-07.pdf
On page 29 , as one of four foci for recommended RD&D, the plan lists: “The development of biochar, animal agriculture residues and other non-fossil fuel based fertilizers, toward the end of integrating energy production with enhanced soil quality and carbon sequestration.”
and on p 32, recommended as part of an expanded database aspect of infrastructure: “Information on the application of carbon as fertilizer and existing carbon credit trading systems.”
I feel 25×25 is now the premier US advocacy organization for all forms of renewable energy, but way out in front on biomass topics.
There are 24 billion tons of carbon controlled by man in his agriculture and waste stream, all that farm & cellulose waste which is now dumped to rot or digested or combusted and ultimately returned to the atmosphere as GHG should be returned to the Soil.
Even with all the big corporations coming to the GHG negotiation table, like Exxon, Alcoa, .etc, we still need to keep watch as they try to influence how carbon management is legislated in the USA. Carbon must have a fair price, that fair price and the changes in the view of how the soil carbon cycle now can be used as a massive sink verses it now being viewed as a wash, will be of particular value to farmers and a global cool breath of fresh air for us all.
If you have any other questions please feel free to call me or visit the TP web site I’ve been drafted to co-administer. http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/?q=node
It has been immensely gratifying to see all the major players join the mail list , Cornell folks, T. Beer of Kings Ford Charcoal (Clorox), Novozyne the M-Roots guys(fungus), chemical engineers, Dr. Danny Day of EPRIDA , Dr. Antal of U. of H., Virginia Tech folks and probably many others who’s back round I don’t know have joined.
Also Here is the Latest BIG Terra Preta Soil news;
The Honolulu Advertiser: “The nation’s leading manufacturer of charcoal has licensed a University of Hawai’i process for turning green waste into barbecue briquets.”
See: http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007707280348
ConocoPhillips Establishes $22.5 Million Pyrolysis Program at Iowa State 04/10/07
Glomalin, the recently discovered soil protien, may be the secret to to TP soils productivity;
http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/2003/030205.htm
Here is my current Terra Preta posting which condenses the most important stories and links;
Terra Preta Soils Technology To Master the Carbon Cycle
Man has been controlling the carbon cycle , and there for the weather, since the invention of agriculture, all be it was as unintentional, as our current airliner contrails are in affecting global dimming. This unintentional warm stability in climate has over 10,000 years, allowed us to develop to the point that now we know what we did,………… and that now……… we are over doing it.
The prehistoric and historic records gives a logical thrust for soil carbon sequestration.
I wonder what the soil biome carbon concentration was REALLY like before the cutting and burning of the world’s forest, my guess is that now we see a severely diminished community, and that only very recent Ag practices like no-till and reforestation have started to help rebuild it. It makes implementing Terra Preta soil technology like an act of penitence, a returning of the misplaced carbon to where it belongs.
On the Scale of CO2 remediation:
It is my understanding that atmospheric CO2 stands at 379 PPM, to stabilize the climate we need to reduce it to 350 PPM by the removal of 230 Billion tons of carbon.
The best estimates I’ve found are that the total loss of forest and soil carbon (combined
pre-industrial and industrial) has been about 200-240 billion tons. Of
that, the soils are estimated to account for about 1/3, and the vegetation
the other 2/3.
Since man controls 24 billion tons in his agriculture then it seems we have plenty to work with in sequestering our fossil fuel CO2 emissions as stable charcoal in the soil.
As Dr. Lehmann at Cornell points out, “Closed-Loop Pyrolysis systems such as Dr. Danny Day’s are the only way to make a fuel that is actually carbon negative”. and that ” a strategy combining biochar with biofuels could ultimately offset 9.5 billion tons of carbon per year-an amount equal to the total current fossil fuel emissions! ”
Terra Preta Soils Carbon Negative Bio fuels, massive Carbon sequestration, 1/3 Lower CH4 & N2O soil emissions, and 3X FertilityToo
This some what orphaned new soil technology speaks to so many different interests and disciplines that it has not been embraced fully by any. I’m sure you will see both the potential of this system and the convergence needed for it’s implementation.
The integrated energy strategy offered by Charcoal based Terra Preta Soil technology may
provide the only path to sustain our agricultural and fossil fueled power
structure without climate degradation, other than nuclear power.
The economics look good, and truly great if we had CO2 cap & trade or a Carbon tax in place.
.Nature article, Aug 06: Putting the carbon back Black is the new green:
http://bestenergies.com/downloads/naturemag_200604.pdf
Here’s the Cornell page for an over view:
http://www.css.cornell.edu/faculty/lehmann/biochar/Biochar_home.htm
University of Beyreuth TP Program, Germany http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org/?q=taxonomy/term/118
This Earth Science Forum thread on these soils contains further links, and has been viewed by 19,000 self-selected folks. ( I post everything I find on Amazon Dark Soils, ADS here):
http://forums.hypography.com/earth-science/3451-terra-preta.html
There is an ecology going on in these soils that is not completely understood, and if replicated and applied at scale would have multiple benefits for farmers and environmentalist.
Terra Preta creates a terrestrial carbon reef at a microscopic level. These nanoscale structures provide safe haven to the microbes and fungus that facilitate fertile soil creation, while sequestering carbon for many hundred if not thousands of years. The combination of these two forms of sequestration would also increase the growth rate and natural sequestration effort of growing plants.
The reason TP has elicited such interest on the Agricultural/horticultural side of it’s benefits is this one static:
One gram of charcoal cooked to 650 C Has a surface area of 400 m2 (for soil microbes & fungus to live on), now for conversion fun:
One ton of charcoal has a surface area of 400,000 Acres!! which is equal to 625 square miles!! Rockingham Co. VA. , where I live, is only 851 Sq. miles
Now at a middle of the road application rate of 2 lbs/sq ft (which equals 1000 sqft/ton) or 43 tons/acre yields 26,000 Sq miles of surface area per Acre. VA is 39,594 Sq miles.
What this suggest to me is a potential of sequestering virgin forest amounts of carbon just in the soil alone, without counting the forest on top.
To take just one fairly representative example, in the classic Rothampstead experiments in England where arable land was allowed to revert to deciduous temperate woodland, soil organic carbon increased 300-400% from around 20 t/ha to 60-80 t/ha (or about 20-40 tons per acre) in less than a century (Jenkinson & Rayner 1977). The rapidity with which organic carbon can build up in soils is also indicated by examples of buried steppe soils formed during short-lived interstadial phases in Russia and Ukraine. Even though such warm, relatively moist phases usually lasted only a few hundred years, and started out from the skeletal loess desert/semi-desert soils of glacial conditions (with which they are inter-leaved), these buried steppe soils have all the rich organic content of a present-day chernozem soil that has had many thousands of years to build up its carbon (E. Zelikson, Russian Academy of Sciences, pers. comm., May 1994). http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/carbon1.html
All the Bio-Char Companies and equipment manufactures I’ve found:
Carbon Diversion
http://www.carbondiversion.com/
Eprida: Sustainable Solutions for Global Concerns
http://www.eprida.com/home/index.php4
BEST Pyrolysis, Inc. | Slow Pyrolysis – Biomass – Clean Energy – Renewable Ene
http://www.bestenergies.com/companies/bestpyrolysis.html
Dynamotive Energy Systems | The Evolution of Energy
http://www.dynamotive.com/
Ensyn – Environmentally Friendly Energy and Chemicals
http://www.ensyn.com/who/ensyn.htm
Agri-Therm, developing bio oils from agricultural waste
http://www.agri-therm.com/
Advanced BioRefinery Inc.
http://www.advbiorefineryinc.ca/
Technology Review: Turning Slash into Cash
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/17298/
3R Environmental Technologies Ltd. (Edward Someus)
WEB: http://www.terrenum.net/
The company has Swedish origin and developing/designing medium and large scale carbonization units. The company is the licensor and technology provider to NviroClean Tech Ltd British American organization WEB: http://www.nvirocleantech.com and VERTUS Ltd.
http://www.vertustechnologies.com
The International Agrichar Initiative (IAI) conference held at Terrigal, NSW, Australia in 2007. ( http://iaiconference.org/home.html ) ( The papers from this conference are now being posted at their home page)
.
If pre-Columbian Kayopo Indians could produce these soils up to 6 feet deep over 15% of the Amazon basin using “Slash & CHAR” verses “Slash & Burn”, it seems that our energy and agricultural industries could also product them at scale.
Harnessing the work of this vast number of microbes and fungi changes the whole equation of energy return over energy input (EROEI) for food and Bio fuels. I see this as the only sustainable agricultural strategy if we no longer have cheap fossil fuels for fertilizer.
We need this super community of wee beasties to work in concert with us by populating them into their proper Soil horizon Carbon Condos.
Erich J. Knight
Shenandoah Gardens
1047 Dave Berry Rd.
McGaheysville, VA. 22840
(540) 289-9750
shengar@aol.com
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:43 am
Great post. These are more or less what I’m hoping for as well.
I’d also like to add one really important one, namely airships. I think we have to get serious about this technology for both freight and (slow) passenger transport.
I would also say that the potential for wing in ground effect aircraft should be very thoroughly researched.
Alternatives to conventional aircraft will be required in a carbon constrained economy.