I have a piece in today’s Toronto Star about SunOpta Inc., which to the best of my knowledge the only pubicly traded cellulosic ethanol play in Canada (possibly North America). Its chairman and long-time CEO, Jeremy Kendall, who steps down from his CEO post next month to focus on strategic development, says the company’s 5-year plan targets revenue growth from ethanol production and the sale of processing equipment at $650 million by 2012, up from just $4 million today. As well, its bioprocess group — which is now an operating subsidiary — will look at doing an initial public offering in two to three years.

Kendall, unlike many commentators I’ve read, commends U.S. President George W. Bush’s ethanol goals as outlined in his State of the Union address — that is, reducing U.S. gasoline consumption by 20 per cent over the next decade by replacing it with ethanol. While critics of the plan focus on the problems with using corn as an ethanol feedstock (i.e. food impact; farmer’s subsidy; price; poor energy return, etc.) and label Bush’s strategy as simplistic, Kendall sees it as a way to force the commercialization of cellulosic ethanol processing as an alternative. Corn, he points out, won’t even be able to supply half of what the U.S. needs to meet Bush’s annual ethanol production targets. The only obvious — and inevitable — way of meeting the expected supply gap is to begin using agricultural residue, wood waste and dedicated, non-food crops that don’t require irrigation and fertilizers.

This is an interesting company to watch, given that “ethanol” only represents about 1 per cent of its $750 million (U.S.) in annual revenues. SunOpta’s main business is as a producer and distributor of organic food products. So if the ethanol side does begin to see substantial growth, it makes sense to spin the business out with a public offering. What’s also interesting is that of the five institutional analysts who cover this company, the two U.S. analysts have “buy” and “outperform” ratings, and the three Canadian analysts have “holds” and “sell.” It shows how much weight the U.S. guys are giving to the ethanol strategy, given the tremendous political will behind ethanol in the United States. It also shows that the Canadian guys may be missing the boat, or just slow to get on board.

For some detail of SunOpta’s cellulosic ethanol projects in the U.S., Canada, Europe and China, click here.

UPDATE: I stand corrected. Turns out there is one other publicly traded Canadian company focused on cellulosic ethanol — Lignol Innovations. The Vancouver-based company orchestrated a reverse-takeover in October and got itself a public listing on the TSX Venture Exchange. The reason I missed it is because Lignol only started trading four days ago — go figure! And its timing was impeccable. Since Bush’s State of the Union address the stock has jumped 50 per cent to $1.15 (so far today).

A new MIT-led study on high-temperature geothermal potential in the United States concludes that there’s a lot more we should be doing to tap this energy goldmine. What we’re talking about here are what MIT calls “enhanced geothermal systems” that capture heat miles under the Earth’s surface and turns that thermal energy into electricity. This should not be confused with low-temperature geothermal or “Earth systems” — another large, untapped energy source — that use ground-source heat pumps or so-called “geoexchange systems” to provide heating and air conditioning for homes and buildings.

News.com has a summary of the study in this story. One of the research panelists behind the study is the University of Calgary’s Michal Moore, who is a former commissioner with the California Energy Commission and a former chief economist with the U.S. government’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory. I’ve got a call into Dr. Moore and I’m hoping he can tell me if there’s anything in this U.S.-focused study that could be extrapolated for Canada.

The study’s concluding recommendation is compelling: “Based on growing markets in the United States for clean, base-load capacity, the panel thinks that with a combined public/private investment of about $800 million to $1 billion over a 15-year period, EGS technology could be deployed commercially on a timescale that would produce more than 100,000 MWe or 100 GWe of new capacity by 2050. This amount is approximately equivalent to the total R&D investment made in the past 30 years to EGS internationally, which is still less than the cost of a single, new-generation clean-coal plant.”

The study’s panel urges U.S. authorities to begin making this investment ASAP, given the “enormous potential” and technical progress that has been achieved so far in the area. “Having EGS as an option will strengthen America’s energy security for the long term in a manner that complements other renewables, clean fossil, and next-generation nuclear.”

The beauty with high-temperature geothermal is it provides baseload power, like hydro-electric and nuclear, so unlike solar and wind there’s no intermittency issues. Also, the waste heat from electricity generation can be used for district heating and hot water. Another bonus is, like hydro-electric, once the facility is built it lasts for several decades without the need for any fuel. The only company in Canada I know of that’s serious about this business is Vancouver, B.C.-based Western Geopower.

It would be so nice if we could develop more of this geothermal in the United States and Canada. I had the opportunity two years ago to visit Iceland for a tour of its geothermal facilities. It was a eye-opening experience, particularly the opportunity to swim in the Blue Lagoon — basically a lagoon filled with the tolerably hot water that’s a byproduct of a facility’s operations (see picture accompanying this post — which I took).

Check out The Gristmill Blog for a summary of Vinod Khosla’s cleantech predictions for 2007. Among other things, he predicts that this year will be the year of cellulosic ethanol, and that we’ll see the first ethanol IPO announced (taking place in 2008). I should point out that we might have an ethanol IPO in Canada before that time if speculation about Greenfield Ethanol turns out true. And who knows? Perhaps SunOpta will decide to spin out its cellulosic ethanol technology business? Then there’s Biox, of course, and its whole biodiesel play… oh, and Lignol Innovations, which is expected to go public with a reverse takeover… but I digress.

Check out The Gristmill Blog for a summary of Vinod Khosla’s cleantech predictions for 2007. Among other things, he predicts that this year will be the year of cellulosic ethanol, and that we’ll see the first ethanol IPO announced (taking place in 2008). I should point out that we might have an ethanol IPO in Canada before that time if speculation about Greenfield Ethanol turns out true. And who knows? Perhaps SunOpta will decide to spin out its cellulosic ethanol technology business? Then there’s Biox, of course, and its whole biodiesel play… oh, and Lignol Innovations, which is expected to go public with a reverse takeover… but I digress.

Joel Makower has a great commentary about the whole “carbon neutral” bandwagon and how every corporation wants to jump on. The problem, he says, is we don’t really have a standard definition of what the term means, meaning any company can make the stretch by calling themselves or their services carbon neutral. He fears the rush to use the term as a marketing tool will water down the meaning, and at the same time discourage what we really need to do: reduce our energy consumption. Makower has a great anology, comparing a company claiming that a service is carbon neutral to a person who orders a Diet Coke with their Big Mac and Fries. The idea is to reduce calories, not just offset them. Are we doing ourselves a disservice by using claims of carbon neutrality as an excuse for our excess consumption? It’s worth the four-minute read.